The Oscars: Academy Award Predictions 2021

by FIN |

By Leonard Feigenblatt ~ The 93rd annual Academy Awards, celebrating the best in film for 2020 and early 2021, will be presented on April 25, 2021. This year’s Oscars were delayed because of the

Filmmaker and Actor Tyler Perry is slated to receive the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award at the 93rd Academy Awards on April 25, 2021. Photo tylerperry.com

pandemic. The Awards will be broadcast live from Los Angeles’ Dolby Theatre and Union Station. The Academy Board of Governors has voted, for the first time, to present two Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Awards, one to Filmmaker and Actor Tyler Perry, and the other to the Motion Picture & Television Fund (MPTF).

Let’s take a look at the categories and see who might and should be going home with an Oscar, and who should have been nominated.

BEST FILM

  • “The Father”
  • “Judas and the Black Messiah”
  • “Mank”
  • “Minari”
  • “Nomadland”
  • “Promising Young Woman”
  • “Sound of Metal”
  • “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Will win: “Nomadland”

Should win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7” or “Promising Young Woman”

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Lee Isaac Chung – “Minari”
  • Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman”
  • David Fincher – “Mank”
  • Thomas Vinterberg – “Another Round”
  • Chloe Zhou – “Nomadland”

Will win: One of the easiest locks of the night Chloe Zhou – “Nomadland”

Should win: Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman”

Should have been nominated: Aaron Sorkin – “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Riz Ahmed – “Sound of Metal”
  • Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
  • Anthony Hopkins – “The Father”
  • Gary Oldman – “Mank”
  • Steven Yeun – “Minari”

This is a two-horse race between Chadwick Boseman and Anthony Hopkins. Boseman gives a wonderful performance in his last film. He tragically died last year from cancer at the age of 46. Many voters will feel this is the last time to honor him. Anthony Hopkins gives what many have said is unequivocally the best performance of the year. Though he won a Best Actor Oscar 29 years ago for “Silence of the Lambs,” many voters might feel that they have to vote for what is the best performance.

Will win: Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Should win: Anthony Hopkins – “The Father”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
  • Andra Day – “The United States v. Billie Holiday”
  • Vanessa Kirby – “Pieces of a Woman”
  • Frances McDormand – “Nomadland”
  • Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman”

This is easily the tightest race of the night. Four of the contenders have a pathway to winning the Oscar. Vanessa Kirby gave a fierce performance but will have to make do with just being nominated. Andra Day has a chance, but as this is her first film and the film was not well received, she too looks likely to have to settle for just being nominated. Frances McDormand is in the film that will likely win many other awards including film and director. If the voters just wants go down the list and vote for everything for this film then she could win. What is going against her is that she has won two previous Best Actress Oscars, the last one in 2018 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” The Academy may want to wait before giving her a third Best Actress Oscar. Viola Davis won the SAG Award for this performance. If she wins, she will become only the second Black actress to win a Lead Actress Oscar. The first being Halle Berry in 2002 for “Monster’s Ball.” Davis has the least screen time and her film, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” was not nominated for either Best Film, Best Director or Best Adapted Screenplay. Carey Mulligan, who gives a brilliant performance, only has been able to win one precursor to the Oscars, at the Critics Choice Awards. It is very likely that voters will be split and the winner just wins by a very few votes.

Will win: Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

Should win: Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman”

Should have been nominated: Sophia Loren – “The Life Ahead”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
  • Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah”
  • Leslie Odom Jr. – “One Night in Miami”
  • Paul Raci – “Sound of Metal”
  • Lakeith Stanfield – “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Will win and should win: This is another easy pick as he has won all the precursors and has the showiest performance: Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Should have been nominated: Frank Langella – “Trial of the Chicago 7”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Maria Bakalova – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
  • Glenn Close – “Hillbilly Elegy”
  • Olivia Colman – “The Father”
  • Amanda Seyfried – “Mank”
  • Yuh-jung Youn – “Minari”

Glenn Close is certainly overdue, as this is her eighth nomination without a win. The Academy is not going to honor her for this film, which they didn’t like. It is probably a two-horse race between Maria Bakalova and Yuh-jung Youn.

Will and should win: Yuh- jung Youn – “Minari”

Should have been nominated: Ellen Burstyn – “Pieces of a Woman”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” – Sacha Baron Cohen, et. al.
  • “The Father” – Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
  • “Nomadland” – Chloe Zhou
  • “One Night in Miami” – Kemp Powers
  • “The White Tiger” – Ramin Bahrani

Another two-horse race between “Nomadland,” which doesn’t have the greatest screenplay but is the film that is likely to win both film and director Oscars; and “The Father,” which is a great script told from a particular point of view.

Will win: “Nomadland” – Chloe Zhou

Should win: “The Father” – Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • “Judas and the Black Messiah” – Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas
  • “Minari” – Lee Isaac Chung
  • “Promising Young Woman” – Emerald Fennell
  • “Sound of Metal” – Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder and Derek Cianfrance
  • “The Trial of the Chicago 7” – Aaron Sorkin

Will win: “Promising Young Woman” – Emerald Fennell

Should win: a tie between the best written script “The Trial of the Chicago 7” – Aaron Sorkin; and the script with the most originality “Promising Young Woman” – Emerald Fennell

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

  • “Another Round” (Denmark)
  • “Better Days” (Hong Kong)
  • “Collective” (Romania)
  • “The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)
  • “Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Another easy call as only one of these films has also been nominated for Best Director.

Will win: “Another Round” (Denmark)

The 93rd Academy Awards will air on Sunday, April 25, at 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, on ABC

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